Oil Surges 2.83% on US-Iran Clashes, Driving US Yields to 2025 High
01 September 2026 · Morning
US-Iran military clashes escalated, pushing WTI crude up 2.83% to $85.76 a barrel.
This reignited inflation fears and, combined with hawkish Fed signals, sent US 10-year Treasury yields to 4.754%, a high not seen since January 2025.
Despite the bond market turmoil, credit and volatility indicators like VIX (14.93) and US high-yield spreads (260bp) remained stable, suggesting the tightening repricing has not yet fully transferred.
Meanwhile, India's Q2 GDP surprised at 7.8%, driven by robust private investment, contrasting with regional economic impacts from the Middle East conflict.
India's economy expanded by a better-than-expected 7.8% in Q2, signaling robust growth in Asia and attracting significant foreign investment.
Global Markets
Detail
S&P 500
Closed at 7,686.14 on August 31.
-0.33%
Nasdaq
Closed at 26,370.88 on August 31.
-0.12%
STOXX 600
Closed at 651.11 on August 31.
-0.62%
Nikkei 225
Closed at 66,311.71 on August 31.
-0.14%
CSI 300
Closed at 4,625.09 on August 31.
+0.35%
KOSPI
Closed at 6,820.02 on August 31.
+0.46%
Hang Seng
Closed at 25,566.99 on August 31.
-0.07%
Dollar Index (DXY)
Closed at 99.42 on August 31.
-0.25%
USD/JPY
Closed at 159.76 on September 1.
+0.02%
EUR/USD
Closed at 1.16 on September 1.
-0.01%
USD/KRW
Closed at 1,367.83 on August 31.
-0.57%
USD/CNY
Closed at 6.72 on August 31.
-0.09%
US 10-year
Yield reached 4.754% on August 31.
+2.4bp
US 2-year
Yield reached 4.346% on August 31.
-1.4bp
Japan 10-year
Yield reached 2.941% on August 31.
+2.2bp
Germany 10-year
Yield reached 3.323% on August 31.
+3.1bp
Korea 10-year
Yield reached 4.313% on August 31.
+3.9bp
US HY Spread
Spread reached 260bp on August 28.
-3.0bp
WTI
Price reached $85.76 on August 31.
+2.83%
Gold
Price reached $4,447.15 on August 31.
-0.15%
Copper
Price reached $6.69 on August 31.
+0.43%
VIX
Index reached 14.93 on August 31.
+3.54%
Australia Home Prices
Australia's home prices extended their declines in August, falling 0.9% month-on-month for the fifth consecutive month.
-0.9% MoM
US G20 Agenda
The U.S., hosting the G20 meeting, emphasized a growth agenda to alleviate global debt market concerns.
Growth Focus
US Iran Diplomacy
The U.S. is seeking G20 support to advance diplomatic efforts to isolate Iran.
G20 Support
New Zealand Central Bank
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday.
Rate Hike Risk
Gold Price
Spot gold dipped 0.1% to $4,448.19/ounce, despite rising inflation concerns from Middle East attacks.
-0.1%
United States
US-Iran military conflict resumes, oil prices surge over 3% amid Strait of Hormuz tensionsWTI +2.83%
The US struck Iranian launch sites near Larak Island on August 31, prompting Iran to retaliate with missile attacks on two US bases in Jordan.
President Trump hinted at further strikes on Iran's Kharg Island via social media, escalating market risk perception.
WTI crude surged over 3%, closing up 2.83% at $85.76, renewing inflation concerns and dampening market optimism for lower oil prices.
Fed Governor Warsh's hawkish signal, 63.9% chance of September rate hike9월 인상 63.9%
At Jackson Hole on August 28, Governor Warsh stated that further policy adjustments are necessary if inflation does not return to the 2% target, interpreted as a hawkish signal.
The CME FedWatch tool now indicates a 63.9% probability of a September rate hike, with Barclays and other major investment banks joining the hawkish camp.
This marks a potential shift in policy after six months of stable rates, focusing market attention on the next FOMC meeting.
Bond, stock, and currency markets weaken on rate hike bets and oil surgeUS 10Y +2.4bp
The US 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.758%, its highest level since January, while German and French long-term yields also reached 15-year highs.
The S&P 500 fell 0.33%, Dow 0.70%, and Nasdaq 0.12%; the STOXX 600 dropped 0.6%, led by telecom and consumer discretionary sectors.
The dollar weakened against the yen, nearing 160 yen, raising concerns about potential Japanese intervention.
Trump respects Warsh but reiterates low-interest rate stance금리 인상 수용
President Trump expressed respect for Governor Warsh on August 31, stating he would 'do what he has to do,' implicitly accepting rate hike signals.
He simultaneously re-emphasized his view that the US should have 'much lower rates than any country in the world,' highlighting tension between Fed policy and his preference.
Treasury Secretary Bessent and OMB Director Vought are coordinating a fiscal consolidation package.
Amazon (AMZN)-3.00%
The FTC and 20 states filed a lawsuit against Amazon, alleging the company secretly manipulated advertising auction prices.
The lawsuit targets Amazon's advertising business, which generates over $38 billion in annual revenue.
Amazon refuted the claims, stating the FTC fundamentally misunderstands its advertising operations.
Eli Lilly (LLY)-1.52%
Eli Lilly agreed to acquire Merida Biosciences for up to $2.88 billion in cash, aiming to expand its autoimmune and allergy disease pipeline.
Regulatory approvals for the Merida acquisition are targeted for Q4, and the AtaiBeckley merger also received all necessary regulatory clearances.
Phase 3B data for Taltz and Zepbound combination therapy showed maintained or improved disease activity in psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis patients over 52 weeks.
Nvidia (NVDA)+1.48%
Nvidia invested $3.5 billion in MediaTek through convertible bonds, strengthening its AI infrastructure ecosystem.
MediaTek will adopt Nvidia's NVLink Fusion platform for custom XPU development, deepening their edge-to-cloud AI partnership.
Meta Platforms (META)-0.98%
Meta reached an $18 billion multi-state settlement to enforce age verification for child users, requiring changes to its core platform operations.
The agreement addresses allegations that Meta intentionally designed its platforms to be addictive for children.
Lockheed Martin (LMT)-0.46%
Lockheed Martin secured a 7-year long-term production contract with the Department of Defense.
The contract will triple PAC-3 MSE missile production and quadruple THAAD missile production, ensuring long-term revenue visibility.
AMD (AMD)+1.10%
AMD, Cisco, and HUMAIN are establishing a joint venture in Saudi Arabia to build up to 1 gigawatt of AI infrastructure.
Deployment of 250 megawatts of AMD Instinct systems is set to begin in 2027, with full capacity by 2030.
Apple (AAPL)-0.89%
Apple presented new evidence in its trade secret lawsuit against OpenAI, alleging a former senior electrical engineer accessed proprietary power converter circuit designs.
The evidence was found on a MacBook provided by OpenAI during legal proceedings on August 21.
Phil Schiller stepped down from his role overseeing the App Store and product launch events.
Intel (INTC)+0.04%
Intel's shares rose 1.7-1.8% on reports that SK Hynix is exploring Intel as a contract manufacturing partner.
The discussions are reportedly in an exploratory phase, not a confirmed agreement.
Microsoft (MSFT)-1.22%
Microsoft announced expanded multi-cloud networking collaboration with AWS.
The company initiated an investigation into reported outages affecting some Exchange Online services.
Abbott (ABT)-1.88%
Abbott launched the first and only whole milk-based ready-to-feed liquid infant formula in the US under its Similac brand.
The new product aims to offer enhanced convenience at a price point similar to existing Similac powder formulas.
Broadcom (AVGO)+0.42%
Broadcom launched its VMware AI Factory platform, designed to accelerate the deployment of enterprise AI models.
The platform aims to efficiently manage AI costs and resources.
Amgen (AMGN)N/A
Repatha demonstrated reduced risk of death in high-risk heart attack and stroke patients.
This finding could lead to an expansion of the drug's indications.
SpaceXN/A
SpaceX and NASA adjusted the launch date for the ISS Crew-13 mission.
The delay is to resolve an oxidizer leak issue in the Dragon spacecraft's propulsion system.
Rocket Lab (RKLB)-0.73%
Bank of America Global Research slightly lowered its target price for Rocket Lab.
Europe
German and French 10-year yields rise to 15-year highs독일 10Y +3.1bp
Rising oil prices and hawkish signals from Fed Governor Warsh (regarding persistent inflation) pressured European bond yields.
Concerns over increased bond supply from German defense and infrastructure spending, alongside French budget discussions, further fueled worries.
Swiss Parliament approves UBS capital regulations—50% CET1, 50% AT1, softer than government's initial demandUBS 규제 완화
The AT1 trigger is set at approximately 11%, which would lead to the suspension of dividends, share buybacks, and bonus reductions if breached.
Strengthened AT1 requirements are expected to increase UBS's funding costs, with the final legislative decision anticipated in 2027.
Germany August CPI +2.9% YoY—below forecast (+3.1%) despite energy surgeCPI +2.9%
Energy prices jumped 10.5% (up from 8.3% in July) due to the Iran conflict, contributing to overall inflation.
However, core inflation remained stable, limiting broader inflationary pressures despite the energy spike.
Russian Finance Minister attends G20 meeting—Europe resists, no normalization during Ukraine warG20 러시아 참석
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov met separately with US Treasury Secretary Bessent.
The German Finance Minister stated that relations cannot normalize as long as the war continues, reflecting European resistance.
EASA reduces Persian Gulf airspace warning, from all countries to maritime zones only공역 경고 축소
Amid renewed US-Iran clashes (the first since late July), risk levels in Persian Gulf airspace remain high.
The warning is valid until September 30, focusing on specific maritime areas rather than the entire region.
Italy's population projected to decrease by 4 million by 2050 (58.9M → 55M)인구 400만 감소
The population is projected to further decline to 45.8 million by 2080, indicating a significant demographic shift.
Rising elderly dependency ratios threaten the sustainability of the pension and welfare systems.
Ireland August CPI +3.4% YoY—energy prices 4.3% higher (highest since March)CPI +3.4%
Core CPI (excluding energy and unprocessed food) rose 2.6% year-over-year, indicating underlying price stability.
The overall increase was largely driven by a 4.3% rise in energy prices, the highest since March.
Portugal Q2 GDP +0.8% QoQ, +2.5% YoY confirmed—net exports and private consumption ledGDP +2.5%
Net exports contributed 0.7 percentage points to the growth, highlighting external demand.
Private consumption also played a significant role in driving the confirmed economic expansion.
Germany and France to announce China trade strategy roadmap in September—focused on Yuan appreciation위안화 절상
The strategy aims to reduce China's cumulative trade surplus by $687 billion from January-July.
Experts assess that Yuan appreciation alone is insufficient to resolve structural imbalances, suggesting broader policy measures may be needed.
Reddit (RDDT)-3.39%
The European Commission designated Reddit as a 'Very Large Online Platform' (VLOP) under the Digital Services Act (DSA).
Reddit, alongside ChatGPT and Roblox, must comply with additional regulatory obligations within four months, including risk assessments for illegal content and transparency for recommendation algorithms.
India
Q2 GDP 7.8% surpasses expectations, led by investment and manufacturingGDP +7.8%
India's GDP growth of 7.8% significantly exceeded Reuters' forecast of 7.1%, though it was down from 8.6% in the previous quarter.
Private investment surged nearly 12% (compared to 5.8% last year), manufacturing grew 9.2%, and financial services expanded 12.1%, driving overall growth.
Robust consumption and investment sustained economic expansion despite some weakness in mining and consumer services.
10-year bond yield hits record high 6.95%, accumulating tightening expectations10Y 6.95%
The yield rose 11bp in August, marking the largest monthly increase this fiscal year and reaching a 3-month high since June 8.
This surge was fueled by strong oil prices (Brent above $90/barrel), hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and expectations of Fed tightening.
Food inflation and rainfall deficit pose risks to household consumption가계 소비 위험
A government report warned that food inflation is eroding household disposable income, thereby limiting discretionary non-food spending.
August rainfall was 16% below the historical average, with September also projected to be below 91%, raising concerns for agricultural output.
El Niño is expected to peak in late 2026, increasing risks for summer crops such as cotton, soybeans, corn, and barley.
RBI expands foreign exchange forward positions to record $136.7 billion외환 선물 $1367억
The position increased by $33 billion in July from June, significantly surpassing the previous high of $106.6 billion before May.
This strategy aims to attract overseas dollar inflows through non-resident foreign currency deposit schemes, stabilizing the balance of payments and easing rupee depreciation.
Foreign investors net bought $3.1 billion in Indian equities in August, a 23-month high외국인 $31억 순매수
This marked the largest monthly purchase since September 2024 and the second consecutive month of net inflows.
Improved corporate earnings outlook and RBI's rupee support policies attracted buying, though year-to-date net outflow remains a record -$24.6 billion.
ONGC plans $10.51 billion 5-year investment in deepwater oilfield developmentONGC $105.1억 투자
The 1 trillion rupee plan involves drilling 87 deepwater and ultra-deepwater wells by March 2031.
This expansion is driven by technological advancements aimed at monetizing undeveloped deepwater resources.
Modi urges Putin to end Ukraine war during meeting우크라 전쟁 종료 촉구
At a summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Prime Minister Modi stated that 'the war must end for humanity' and affirmed support for 'all peace efforts.'
International arbitration court orders India to comply with Pakistan water-sharing treaty물분배 조약 준수
The Hague International Arbitration Court ordered restrictions on Kashmir hydropower plant construction and compliance with the 1965 water-sharing treaty.
India had unilaterally suspended the treaty after a 2025 April terrorist attack in Kashmir (26 dead), linking some attackers to Pakistan.
Asia
India Q2 GDP+7.8%
India's GDP grew by 7.8% year-on-year in April-June, surpassing the Reuters poll estimate of 7.1%.
This strong performance was driven by robust domestic demand and investment.
India's ONGC Investment$10.5B
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) announced plans to invest $10.5 billion.
The investment is earmarked for deepwater exploration projects to boost energy security.
Indian Stocks Foreign Buying23-month high
Foreign buying in Indian equities reached its highest level in 23 months during August.
This indicates strong international investor confidence in the Indian market.
India-Russia RelationsUkraine War
Indian Prime Minister Modi conveyed to Russian President Putin that the war in Ukraine must conclude.
Modi emphasized the need for peace for humanity's sake during their discussion.
Latin America
Brazil National Debt82.5% of GDP
Brazil's gross national debt increased to 82.5% of GDP in July, exceeding the Reuters poll forecast of 82.1%.
High interest expenditures continue to deepen the overall fiscal deficit despite a small primary surplus.
Brazil Net Debt69.1% of GDP
Net debt also rose to 69.1% of GDP, surpassing the Reuters poll estimate of 68.8%.
The escalating cost of debt servicing is a significant concern for investors and economists.
Brazil Fiscal PolicySpending Reform
The Finance Minister is pushing to relax mandatory spending requirements for some social programs.
This aims to enhance fiscal operational flexibility and improve program efficiency.
Brazil Economic OutlookGDP Forecast
The government's 2027 GDP growth forecast was slightly lowered to 2.46% from 2.5% previously.
The Vice President suggested that debt ratios could improve by combining spending control with economic growth.
Latin America MarketsMixed
Latin American currencies and stocks showed mixed performance amid a softer dollar and renewed Middle East tensions.
Global inflation concerns are pressuring regional asset fundamentals despite short-term dollar weakness.
Colombia August Inflation+0.26% MoM
Analysts expect Colombia's August consumer price inflation to accelerate to +0.26% month-on-month.
The annual inflation rate is projected at 6.10%, remaining above the central bank's target.
Colombia 2026 Inflation6.76%
The end-2026 inflation forecast for Colombia was raised to 6.76% from 6.66%.
This adjustment reflects the economic impact of recent earthquakes and persistent price increases in housing, utilities, and food.
Colombia Debt SwapsBudget Adjustment
Colombia plans to conduct local government debt swaps starting in September.
These swaps, involving fixed-rate, inflation-linked, and short-term bonds, aim to manage increased borrowing needs.
Chile Manufacturing Output-4.9% YoY
Chile's manufacturing output declined by 4.9% year-on-year in July.
The contraction indicates ongoing challenges in the industrial sector.
Emerging Markets
South Africa Trade Balance20.14B Rand
South Africa recorded a trade surplus of 20.14 billion rand in July, significantly exceeding the consensus of 14.00 billion rand.
The year-to-date trade surplus (Jan-Jul) improved by 30% to 130.9 billion rand compared to the previous year.
Qatar Q1 GDP-7% YoY
Qatar's first-quarter GDP fell by 7% year-on-year to 170.8 billion riyals ($46.9 billion).
The decline was primarily attributed to a sharp drop in energy production amid Middle East conflicts.
Russia Central Bank ScenarioHigh-Risk
The Russian central bank's high-risk scenario for 2027 projects a GDP contraction of 3-4%.
Under this scenario, inflation could reach 11-13%, and oil prices could fall to $35 per barrel.
Russia Key Rate OutlookHold
Analysts polled by Reuters expect the Russian central bank to keep its key rate unchanged at the September 11 meeting.
The ruble is projected to weaken to 91.51 against the U.S. dollar in 12 months from its current level around 86.
Senegal IMF MissionProgress
The IMF mission to Senegal has made 'substantial progress' and is expected to conclude on September 2.
Negotiations are underway for new borrowing of $1.8 billion following an incident of under-reported debt.
Ukraine Grain Exports80 Vessels
The queue of vessels waiting at Ukraine's Danube river ports has grown to 80.
This bottleneck highlights challenges in alternative grain export routes after the Black Sea port blockade.
Czech 2027 Budget Deficit389B Koruna
The Czech Republic's 2027 budget deficit is projected at 389 billion koruna, an increase of 79 billion koruna from the 2026 plan.
This budget aims to achieve NATO's 2% defense spending target for the first time, alongside investments in infrastructure and public sector wages.
Indonesia Diesel Subsidy19M kL
Indonesia's 2027 diesel subsidy allocation is set at 19 million kiloliters, a 2% increase from the previous plan.
This adjustment follows actual demand in 2026 exceeding initial forecasts, while LPG subsidies remain frozen.
Turkey TOGG ShareholderSWF Entry
Turkey's sovereign wealth fund has become a new shareholder in electric vehicle manufacturer TOGG.
The fund acquired a 46% stake from Vestel and Anadolu, with Turkcell's stake expected to increase.
Nigeria Q2 GDP+4.43% YoY
Nigeria's economy expanded by 4.43% year-on-year in Q2, accelerating from 3.89% in Q1.
Growth was observed in both oil and non-oil sectors, indicating a positive trend towards higher targets.
Sri Lanka August Inflation8%
Sri Lanka's inflation rose to 8% in August from 7.3% in July, primarily due to a surge in food prices.
Food inflation jumped from 6.3% to 8.5%, impacted by El Niño-related drought and rising global wheat prices.
Kenya August Inflation6.6%
Kenya's annual inflation rate edged up to 6.6% in August from 6.5% in July.
The monthly inflation rate also expanded from 0.2% to 0.4%.
China
Taiwan China ThreatIncreased Control
Taiwan warned of China's 'unpredictable' actions and increased air and sea control around the island.
China is reportedly incorporating lessons from the Ukraine and Iran conflicts into its military tactics, reaffirming its intent for 'annihilation strikes' if unification is pursued by force.
China Property StocksDeclined
Chinese property stocks fell following new regulations that overhaul the presale funding playbook.
New rules require mortgages to be provided after project completion, reducing upfront cash flow for developers and potentially accelerating industry consolidation.
Japan
US Treasury on JPYStronger Yen
A U.S. Treasury official, Bessent, indicated that Japan is likely to take actions leading to a stronger yen.
The yen strengthened against the dollar immediately after these comments, reflecting market reaction to potential policy shifts.