Global Markets Digest: Oil Surges on Mideast Tensions, US Jobs Miss Forecasts
03 September 2026 · Morning
Iran-US conflict reignited, causing oil prices and global bond yields to surge again, while gold maintained its strength.
Yesterday (Sep 2), Asian markets saw sharp declines (KOSPI -3.99%, Nikkei -2.85%, CSI300 -1.38%), but US and European markets closed robustly (S&P500 +0.46%).
US August ADP private employment increased by 38,000, falling short of the 48,000 forecast, as the Fed's Beige Book reaffirmed moderate growth and price increases.
The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25%, warning of upside inflation risks from tariffs, while US federal debt surpassed $40 trillion.
Geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East, driving oil prices higher and impacting markets, particularly in oil-importing nations like India.
Global Markets
Detail
S&P 500
Closed at 7,666.60 on September 2.
+0.46%
Nasdaq
Closed at 26,217.82 on September 2.
+0.45%
STOXX 600
Closed at 645.92 on September 2.
-0.24%
Nikkei 225
Closed at 64,325.42 on September 2.
-2.85%
CSI 300
Closed at 4,547.96 on September 2.
-1.38%
KOSPI
Closed at 6,562.72 on September 2.
-3.99%
Hang Seng
Closed at 25,311.21 on September 2.
-0.07%
Dollar Index (DXY)
Closed at 99.56 on September 2.
-0.10%
USD/JPY
Closed at 158.66 on September 3.
-0.01%
EUR/USD
Closed at 1.16 on September 3.
-0.01%
USD/KRW
Closed at 1,358.27 on September 2.
-1.21%
USD/CNY
Closed at 6.72 on September 2.
-0.02%
US 10-year
Closed at 4.780% on September 2.
-1.6bp
US 2-year
Closed at 4.371% on September 2.
-2.9bp
Japan 10-year
Closed at 3.002% on September 2.
-0.3bp
Germany 10-year
Closed at 3.373% on September 2.
+0.4bp
Korea 10-year
Closed at 4.404% on September 2.
+3.3bp
US HY Spread
Closed at 265bp on September 1.
+2.0bp
WTI
Closed at 91.01 on September 2.
+0.88%
Gold
Closed at 4,387.15 on September 2.
+1.35%
Copper
Closed at 6.59 on September 2.
-0.11%
VIX
Closed at 15.19 on September 2.
-6.98%
Middle East Conflict Reignites, Global Yields Surge
Geopolitical risks surged as Iran and the US resumed their largest conflict since July, with air raid sirens reported in Bahrain and Kuwait.
Oil +0.88%
Central Banks Eye Inflation Risks
The Bank of Canada maintained its key interest rate at 2.25%, aligning with market expectations.
BoC Rate 2.25%
Dell Technologies (DELL)
Information Technology sector, with a market capitalization of $318B.
+15.81%
Reddit (RDDT)
Communication Services sector, with a market capitalization of $30B.
+9.31%
Charter Communications (CHTR)
Communication Services sector, with a market capitalization of $18B.
+8.74%
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)
Information Technology sector, with a market capitalization of $11B.
+6.32%
Block (SQ)
Financials sector, with a market capitalization of $50B.
+5.88%
Steel Dynamics (STLD)
Materials sector, with a market capitalization of $35B.
+5.79%
The Trade Desk (TTD)
Communication Services sector, with a market capitalization of $7B.
+5.59%
Best Buy (BBY)
Consumer Discretionary sector, with a market capitalization of $18B.
+5.29%
Nucor (NUE)
Materials sector, with a market capitalization of $60B.
+4.78%
PayPal (PYPL)
Financials sector, with a market capitalization of $47B.
+4.33%
United States
Private Payroll Growth Slows in AugustADP +38K
US ADP private employment increased by 38,000 in August, significantly missing the forecast of 48,000.
This signals a weakening labor market, with manufacturing employment declining by 17,000 while education and health services added 45,000 jobs.
Factory orders partially recovered, rising 0.9% in July after a revised 0.2% decline in June, but overall economic momentum remains weak.
Fed Beige Book Notes Moderate Growth Amid RisksModerate Growth
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reported moderate economic activity and moderate price increases in recent weeks.
However, it highlighted growing business concerns over rising energy prices, policy uncertainty, and international conflicts.
Regional employment varied, with three districts reporting modest growth, four weak, and five stagnant, complicating the upcoming FOMC decision.
US National Debt Exceeds $40 Trillion$40T Debt
US national debt surpassed $40 trillion within 19 months of the second Trump administration, accompanied by rising borrowing costs.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the administration's tax cuts and immigration policies contributed an additional $4.7 trillion to the debt.
This starkly contrasts with promises of fiscal restraint, posing a significant challenge for future congressional fiscal management.
Broadcom (AVGO)-0.18%
Q3 revenue of $29.6B surpassed consensus of $29.4B, with adjusted EPS of $3.32 exceeding $3.24 estimates.
Q4 revenue guidance of $34.8B fell below consensus, but AI semiconductor revenue guidance remained strong at $21.7B (+236% YoY).
CEO raised FY2026 AI revenue guidance to $58B and aims for $230B in AI semiconductor revenue and $30+ EPS by FY2028.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)-5.24%
Q4 revenue of $3.41B beat consensus of $3.35B, adjusted EPS of $1.02 exceeded $0.98 estimates, but reported a GAAP net loss of $282M.
Next-generation security ARR grew 63% to $9.1B, with FY2027 ARR guidance of $110.7B-$111.7B.
Announced the acquisition of AI-native security platform Console, with undisclosed terms.
Alphabet (GOOGL)-1.28%
A federal judge rejected the forced divestiture of its AdX advertising exchange in an antitrust lawsuit, opting for behavioral remedies.
This decision alleviates business division risks for the company.
Introduced new AI model Gemini 3.8 and launched Fairwind, an advanced cybersecurity defense program for governments and partners.
Apple (AAPL)+2.61%
Tim Cook stepped down as CEO after 15 years, transitioning to Chairman of the Board.
John Turnus, head of hardware, was appointed as the new CEO.
Addressing the AI competition gap is identified as a top priority for the new leadership.
Microsoft (MSFT)-1.24%
Provided FY27 Q1 outlook, guiding Azure revenue growth of 44-45% on a constant currency basis.
Reorganized reporting segments into 'Agents & Infra' and 'Devices & Consumer' starting FY27.
Will begin disclosing Azure quarterly revenue separately, enabling direct growth comparisons with rivals like AWS and Google Cloud.
Meta Platforms (META)+1.08%
Is pursuing a settlement of up to $18B to resolve child safety-related shareholder lawsuits.
Released a new voice transcription API, MuseVoiceTranscribe, priced at $3 per 1,000 minutes.
Aims to narrow the technology gap with competitors like OpenAI and Google by launching enhanced AI models.
Chevron (CVX)+2.38%
Signed an energy agreement with a Venezuelan state-owned company, committing to invest $7B over the next 5 years.
Aims to achieve a daily production target of 600,000 barrels at a cost of under $20 per barrel.
The joint venture Petroindependencia secured development rights for the Carabobo 1 and Carabobo-2-South-A areas in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt.
GE Aerospace (GE)
Secured a contract to supply 12 LM2500+G4 marine gas turbines for the Korean Navy's next-generation destroyer (KDDX) program.
Boeing (BA)+1.56%
In final negotiations with Ethiopian Airlines for the sale of up to 10 777 freighters, including the new 777-8F model.
The FAA fined Boeing $3.1M for safety violations related to the Alaska Airlines door plug incident in 2024.
Amgen (AMGN)
The UK medicines regulator suspended new patient prescriptions for its rare disease drug Tavneos due to concerns over data reliability.
Tesla (TSLA)-3.22%
August sales of Model 3 and Y from its Shanghai factory reached 86,166 units, a 3.6% YoY increase but a significant slowdown from July's 38% growth.
Monthly sales decreased 7.9% from July, indicating weakening momentum.
Plans to unveil its Cybertaxi, a two-seater fully autonomous vehicle, in Austin, Texas on September 3.
Costco (COST)-0.42%
Reported August net sales of $23.7B, a 9.9% increase YoY for the four-week period.
Comparable sales for August grew 8.4%, with Q4 and full fiscal year comparable sales also up 9.4% and 8.4% respectively.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)-0.34%
Invested an additional $1B in Alphabet, making it the third-largest holding, a move led by Warren Buffett.
CEO Greg Abel praised Alphabet as a 'major player' in AI, expecting significant growth opportunities for Berkshire's energy division from AI data center expansion.
Plans to hold investments in major Japanese trading companies for decades and may issue additional debt in Japan if needed.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR)-5.81%
Announced that AIG Chairman Peter Zaffino will join the company as Global Head of Financial Services, effective January 15, 2027.
Oracle (ORCL)+3.13%
Partnered with Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) for a multi-year global deployment of Juniper networking technology to build gigawatt-scale AI infrastructure.
HPE granted Oracle stock purchase warrants as a sign of strengthened collaboration and long-term strategic partnership.
GE Vernova (GEV)+2.61%
Signed an agreement with Venezuela's state power company CORPOELEC and state oil company PDVSA to restore power infrastructure.
The agreement aims to modernize and improve the reliability of Venezuela's aging power grid, requiring approximately 1,000 workers.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)+2.01%
UBS raised its target price for Johnson & Johnson from $280 to $320, an increase of 14%.
Caterpillar (CAT)+1.68%
Formed a partnership with FieldAI to drive AI-based industrial innovation.
Nvidia (NVDA)-1.51%
CEO Jensen Huang urged G20 technology leaders to focus on 'real problems' rather than 'theoretical harms' when establishing AI regulations.
SpaceX (SPCX)-1.02%
Oppenheimer raised its target price for SpaceX from $250 to $280, an increase of 12%.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)-0.30%
Its asset management division rebranded Campbell Global subsidiary as 'J.P. Morgan Natural Capital' to enhance its focus on natural capital asset management.
Europe
UK Gilt Yields Hit 19-Year HighGilt Yields +5.294%
UK 10-year gilt yields surged to 5.294% on September 2, reaching their highest level since August 2007.
This rise was driven by the renewed US-Iran conflict and broader inflation concerns, contributing to a global bond sell-off.
The FTSE 100 fell 0.3%, and the FTSE 250 dropped 0.8%, reaching its lowest since August 4, as the Chancellor faces reduced fiscal headroom.
Germany Approves Family Tax Cuts, Boosts Growth OutlookGrowth +1.2%
Germany approved a €10 billion income tax relief package for low and middle-income families, to be phased in until 2028.
The measure will be partly funded by increased taxes on high earners, aiming to stimulate the economy.
The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) doubled its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% from 0.5%, citing strong exports and easing energy shocks.
Eurozone Yields Climb on Inflation WorriesGerman 10Y +3.395%
Eurozone bond yields continued their ascent for a sixth consecutive session, with German 10-year yields reaching 3.395%, a 15-year high.
The market has fully priced in a September rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) amid persistent energy inflation concerns.
Gas prices are near yearly highs, trading at a 20% premium compared to the ECB's baseline forecast.
Banks Swap High-Risk Assets for BOE CashBOE Cash
Banks are reportedly rushing to swap higher-risk credit assets for cash from the Bank of England.
This move aims to strengthen their liquidity positions amidst market uncertainties.
Danish Central Bank IntervenesCrown Peg Defended
The Danish central bank intervened in August to defend the peg of its crown currency.
This action was taken to maintain currency stability against the euro.
Summer Weather Impacts French Growth-0.1% Growth
Summer weather conditions could shave 0.1 percentage points off French economic growth.
Agricultural sectors, particularly farms, have suffered due to adverse weather.
Japan
US Urges Japan to Raise RatesJGBs +3%
The US Treasury Secretary urged the Bank of Japan Governor and Finance Minister to raise interest rates during the G20 summit.
The 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield surpassed 3% yesterday, marking the first time in 30 years.
An analyst noted that Japan's monetary policy setting is increasingly influenced by Washington, not Tokyo.
Yen Fluctuates Against DollarYen +1%
The Japanese Yen surged over 1% against the dollar today, reaching ¥158.56 per dollar, though the specific background for the sharp rise remains unclear.
This gain reversed more than half of the yen's appreciation from the joint US-Japan market intervention in late July (from ¥163.98 to ¥155.21).
Asia
India Shares Decline on Mideast TensionsOil Prices Up
Indian stock indices fell as renewed US-Iran military clashes drove up oil prices.
As the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, India faces risks of higher living costs, slower growth, and a worsening trade balance due to rising oil.
Simultaneously, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a 3.5-year high of 4.81%, increasing global borrowing cost pressures.
RBI Boosts Rupee Defense+$136.38B Inflows
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recorded cumulative foreign currency inflows of $136.38 billion by August 31 through its forex swap and non-resident dollar deposit schemes launched in June, exceeding market expectations.
This inflow strengthens the rupee's defense capabilities against external pressures.
The breakdown includes $127.23 billion from non-resident dollar deposits, $3.89 billion from external commercial borrowings, and $5.26 billion from overseas foreign currency borrowings.
Indian Bonds Decline5-Day Weakness
Indian government bonds weakened for a fifth consecutive session amid a global bond sell-off.
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.81%, a 3.5-year high, contributing to the pressure.
Market participants are concerned about the possibility of US Treasury yields reaching 5% as oil price resurgence reignites inflation fears.
Corporate Bond Issuance Halves-45% Issuance
Private bond issuance in August totaled 61.76 billion rupees ($650 million), a 45% decrease from July.
Rising bond yields across the board have made companies more reluctant to raise funds.
A recovery in September is considered unlikely by bankers.
Rupee Stable with RBI Support₹94.97/USD
The rupee closed at ₹94.97 per dollar, showing almost no change from the previous day's close of ₹94.95.
RBI's dollar sales helped offset depreciation pressures from importer dollar demand, rising oil prices, and increasing US Treasury yields.
Emerging Markets
Iran-US Clash in Hormuz StraitTensions High
The largest military exchange since July reignited regional tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Security concerns deepened for students and parents in the Middle East just before the start of the new academic year.
Iran Blacklists More TankersNew Sanctions
Iran published an additional list of blacklisted vessels on a government website, extending sanctions to ships even before loading.
This threatens confiscation, detention, and fines for passing vessels, increasing risks for energy and food transport.
Russia's GDP Growth SlowsGDP +0.6% Y/Y
Russia's GDP grew by a weaker-than-expected 0.6% year-on-year in July, failing to rebound from June's revised 1.7% growth.
Cumulative growth for January-July was also 0.6%, with Q2 capital investment falling 6.6% year-on-year (approx. $109.9 billion) and corporate profits worsening by 13.3% in the first half.
The Economy Ministry revised its annual growth forecast for 2026 down to 0.4% from 1.3% announced in May.
Ukraine Grain Exports Plummet-58% Exports
Ukraine's grain exports in August fell by 58% to 981 thousand tons, compared to 2.355 million tons in the previous year.
Blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea have severely restricted maritime export routes.
Cumulative grain exports for the 2026/27 season (as of September 1) reached 3.726 million tons.
Black Sea Shipping Risks RiseDrone Attacks
Increased drone exchanges between Russia and Ukraine have heightened risks for shipping routes near the Bosphorus Strait.
Merchant ships are using improvised defenses like tires, water tanks, and fishing nets.
The Turkish President emphasized the need for a Black Sea safety mechanism before the grain crisis escalates further.
President Zelensky warned yesterday that Ukrainian drones pose a threat to Russian airspace.
Pegasus Airlines canceled its September 2 flight, and Flydubai issued warnings about delays and diversions.
Greece Eyes Early Bailout Repayment€5.3B Early
Greece may repay €5.3 billion of its initial bailout by 2029, two years ahead of the original 2031 target, due to strong public finances and economic growth.
The public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to fall from 145.9% (2025) to an estimated 136.8% (2026), surpassing Italy and Portugal.
Thailand Boosts Rooftop Solar5GW in 1 Year
Thailand plans to install 5 gigawatts of rooftop solar within a year for 1 million households to counter LNG price shocks.
An emergency energy transition fund of 200 billion baht (approx. $6.01 billion) will provide 50,000 baht ($1,502) per household.
The Philippines and Bangladesh are pursuing similar fiscal policies for energy structure transition.
Lebanon Central Bank Audit Begins4-Year Audit
Lebanon's central bank initiated an audit of four years of transactions since the 2019 financial collapse.
The selection of French consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal signals a move towards increased transparency.
This aims to lay the groundwork for rebuilding the financial system amidst ongoing capital controls and deposit freezes.
Ghana Inflation RisesCPI +5.0% Y/Y
Ghana's consumer prices rose by 5.0% year-on-year in August, up from 4.6% in July.
Housing, water, and energy accounted for 29.4% of the increase, with food contributing 29.1%.
On a monthly basis, prices fell by 1.0%, marking the largest monthly decline on record.
Indonesia Central Bank Focuses on Global RatesNew Governor
New central bank governor Destry Damayanti, the first woman in the role, has made rising global interest rates a key agenda item for the next policy meeting.
She acknowledged that increasing global bond yields are putting pressure on Indonesian markets.
Her appointment fills the vacancy left by Perry Warjiyo's mid-term resignation in July.
Hungarian Forint WeakensEUR/HUF +3.3%
The EUR/HUF pair rose 3.3% this week to 3.7165, as the Hungarian currency weakened due to Middle East conflict and rising fuel costs.
After breaking the 200-day moving average (371.47), resistance formed around 3.7430.
This triggered position unwinding by hedge funds and a cascade of stop orders amid low liquidity.
China
China's Low Bond Yields10Y Yield <1.7%
China's 10-year government bond yield remained below 1.7%, maintaining a spread of over 300 basis points with US 10-year yields, an all-time high.
Global government bonds are rising to multi-decade or all-time highs due to inflation concerns, declining policy credibility, and unsustainable debt.
China's persistently low yields signal either a prolonged low-interest rate environment or economic weakness.
Xi Jinping Visits EgyptMideast Security
President Xi Jinping emphasized reshaping the Middle East security order and opposing external interference during his first visit to the region in four years.
China seeks to expand its diplomatic and economic role amid the US-Iran conflict.
The two nations agreed to expand cooperation in data centers and semiconductors.
China Denies Intentional Trade Surplus$1.2T Surplus
China's central bank governor stated at the G20 that China does not deliberately pursue a trade surplus.
The country recorded a record trade surplus of approximately $1.2 trillion in 2025.
The G20 chairman's statement, excluding China, agreed to eliminate 'non-market policies,' while China emphasized expanding domestic demand and maintaining openness.
Tesla (TSLA) China Sales Slow+3.6% Y/Y
Tesla's (TSLA) Shanghai factory sold 86,166 vehicles in August, a slowdown with only a 3.6% year-on-year increase.
This is a significant deceleration compared to the 38% year-on-year increase in July.
Monthly sales also decreased by 7.9% compared to the previous month, though it marks the tenth consecutive month of growth.
Latin America
Ibovespa Rallies 3%+3%
The Ibovespa index rose 3%, nearing a four-month high, extending its winning streak to 11 consecutive sessions.
The MSCI Latin America index also gained 3%, with regional currencies up 0.5%.
The rally was driven by a narrowing technical tie in election polls between President Lula and a right-wing senator, a weaker dollar, and attractive carry trades.
Lula's Lead Narrows in PollsLula 42%
President Lula is in a technical tie with right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a second-round simulation for the October presidential election.
A Quaest poll (commissioned by Globo) showed Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 41%, a reduction from Lula's 43% to 41% lead in the August 14 poll.
In the first-round scenario, Lula garnered 37% support.
Brazilian Real Outlook StableNo Sharp Drop
A Reuters FX strategist poll predicts the Real will avoid sharp declines until 2027.
Expectations for fiscal stabilization by the next government are seen as a key factor in defending the currency.
The Real is trading near the midpoint of its R$4.60-R$6.30 per dollar range, after first breaking R$5 in early 2020.
Brazil Industrial Output Misses Forecast+0.2% Y/Y
Industrial production in July rose by 0.2% year-on-year, significantly below the Reuters poll estimate of +0.6%.
On a monthly basis, production increased by 0.2%, also missing the +0.6% forecast.
Brazil Central Bank to Address Credit RiskCapital Measures
The Brazilian Central Bank announced it would implement capital measures to address household credit risk, as revealed in the Financial Stability Committee meeting minutes.
The aim is to strengthen risk perception, gradually accumulate capital, and provide more sustainable credit conditions to borrowers, in response to the increasing share of high-interest credit products in household debt.
Mexico Urges US on TariffsAuto/Steel Tariffs
Economy Minister Ebrard discussed progress on automobile and steel tariff negotiations with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick yesterday.
Mexico is pressing the US for advancements on these long-standing trade issues.
Banxico Signals Extended Rate PauseRate Pause
Bank of Mexico Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath stated in a podcast interview yesterday that it is 'appropriate to pause rate cuts at the current level.'
He suggested that further cuts are unlikely in the short term and could only be considered in about a year if inflation continues to converge towards the 3% target.
While recent inflation data is very favorable, it is not definitive, and the persistent risk of service inflation remains a key concern.
Mexico Probes Japan Steel ImportsAnti-Dumping
Mexico's Economy Ministry initiated an anti-dumping investigation into Japanese steel plates, as announced in the official gazette yesterday.
The probe follows a complaint from domestic steel producer Grupo Acerero, alleging unfair trade practices such as price discrimination.
The investigation period extends until 2025, with the damage analysis period from January 2023 to December 2025.
Mexico Central Bank Signals Extended Rate PauseNo Rate Cuts
A Bank of Mexico official stated that short-term rate cuts are not feasible, necessitating a check on inflation progress.
Risk assessment remains elevated, with persistent services inflation identified as the primary concern.
While recent inflation data was described as 'very good,' it was not considered a definitive victory against price pressures.
Mexico Initiates Anti-Dumping Probe on Japanese SteelTrade Action
Mexico has launched an anti-dumping investigation into steel sheets imported from Japan.
This move indicates a focus on protecting domestic industries from unfair trade practices.
US-Venezuela Oil Deal Boosts Debt Restructuring ProspectsDebt Outlook Up
A recent cooperation agreement between the US and Venezuela is strengthening the outlook for Venezuela's sovereign debt restructuring.
North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) secured 100-year mining rights for 17 oil fields, estimated to hold 65 billion barrels of reserves.
The US government holds a 35% stake in NABEP's parent company and has secured other rights, signaling strategic involvement in Venezuelan oil production.